Thursday, April 23, 2009

International markets analysis


A little bit of analysis of charts of intl markets too.. cause they seem to strengthen and augment my view on Nifty presented in the post below. Here goes...

First look at Hang Seng’s hourly chart – the market which we most closely follow

hang seng hourly 22.04_thumb[9]

Today the Hang seng too broke below its major support line which was guiding its move from the early March lows.

Dow Jones Daily (Futures Chart)

dow jones daily2 22.04

Note this is Dow Jones Futures chart – which is why there are no gaps etc. Comments marked on chart itself.

Nasdaq has already broken below support line couple of days back, but  importantly S & P 500 still inside a parallel channel.We’ll see whether we get a break or not.  Across the forex market most pairs have broken below support levels and suggest that the trend has changed. You can read more about fx analysis on my other blog on forex technical analysis.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Break below support, possible change of trend

nifty hourly 22.04

So we finally have a confirmation that the trend has changed. Let me take you step by step as why I think so.

a. Double top at 3500 (marked on chart above)

b. Break below support on hourly charts – the level of 3300-3320 has held many times during last 10 days. Finally broken today with momentum.

c. Hourly MACD turns negative (actually this happened yesterday morning itself,  but we dont depend solely on indicators to take trades.

d. Divergence on RSI chart – multiple times actually, which is fine & expected on an hourly chart

e. Short term falling resistance line was respected today near 3390 from where we started sliding

f. Its broken through a support line (below)

nifty hourly2 22.04

Now for the daily charts – have a look below

nifty daily 22.04

The biggest sign here – presence of lower highs and lower lows – very very clear on this chart.

So this is the analysis as of now.. we should see prices move lower from here.